Some thoughts on Libya.

So as the civil war in Libya starts winding down, I've got some thoughts about it.
The Libyan Civil War was really the first modern war (civil or otherwise) that I paid any attention to; I recall the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, but I was too young to follow them closely. They're only a shadow in my memory. Libya, however, is clear and bright in my mind. I can recall the important events (as I watched the fight closely from the beginning), the decision-makers, the controversies, the quotes about it, even the equipment used in the conflict. I can remember the articles from all different points of view talking about the conflict. Libya seems to be the conflict that will shape my future views on war, whether I want it to or not.

The first thing I learned from Libya is that even nowadays, the smallest decisions can cause the most incredible things to happen. It's funny, really. In 1914 Franz Ferdinand was killed by a Serbian nationalist, sparking a war bigger than any the world had seen before, and now, almost a century afterwards, a Tunisian fruit-seller named Mohamed Bouazizi sets himself on fire, sparking one of the biggest waves of revolutions and protests since 1848 (which was called the Year of Revolutions). Side note: It's a bit frightening to look at 1848 and see the parallels in the "Arab Spring" of 2011, only Middle-Eastern instead of European. The smallest decisions by the lowliest of figures can shake the very foundations of the world.

The second idea I've discovered is that covering fire is a godsend to the underdog in a war. The Libyan rebels (now considered by most of the world to be the rightful Libyan government and people) were outclassed in many, many ways by Mommar Gaddafi's forces. The pro-Gaddafi forces at the beginning of the war were better equipped, better skilled, had more experience in combat, had a stronger position, and had better morale. All of that didn't matter as much when bombs rained from the sky like a reversed London Blitz.

The third thing I've found is that people who haven't been trained in any kind of combat for roughly 40 years can't pick up military skills at the drop of a hat. Beyond suppressing insurrections and small-ish, low intensity wars, Gaddafi's army doesn't have too much experience either, but it still has much more experience than the National Transitional Council (formerly rebel) forces do. Besides the defected former Gaddafi regiments, the NTC guys have only been at this for about half a year, so it makes sense that they have to learn how to fight properly as they go. It isn't surprising that they're making many, many mistakes.

The fourth interesting fact that I've seen is how different parts of a country and its people react to the crumbling of a regime. Some Libyan cities (Benghazi in particular) revolted when they had their first chance. Others waited for their dictator to be distracted by the first revolters. Others were publicly loyal until the NTC tanks and jeeps rolled into their cities, revealing themselves to be wholeheartedly supportive of the opposition forces. The way the people reacted is a fascinating observation itself. Some secretly deserted Gaddafi when he turned his back, others refused his orders openly and trumpeted their opposition to him. Yet others waited until the NTC forces managed to siege major cities successfully. A few ran to the NTC only when Gaddafi had no chance to hunt them down. And a few hardliners only hardened in their loyalty to the deposed dictator. And throughout it all, suspicion mounts against those who take too long to desert Gaddafi. Before his shady death, General Younis of the NTC forces was under the suspicion of NTC forces that thought he only fled the dictator to set himself up in a coup, Gaddafi-style.

All in all, the Libyan Civil War/Revolution has been very well documented, and with all its twists and turns it is an excellent study into how modern-day wars can operate. Forget Iraq or Afghanistan, those wars were predictable from the start. Libya, however, reads like a novel, and is informative while still being interesting. It would be better if it wasn't needed at all (if Gaddafi stood down), but as it is, I think it was a needed revolution; not only for the Libyan people to show their desire for freedom, self-worth, and democracy, but also a revolution that gives a lesson to the world in terms of changing the paradigm for the Middle East.